Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints31
- Jrue HolidayAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds20
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints29
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–115
- Q42.0Kyshawn George defensive rebound111–115
- Q44.5Shaedon Sharpe misses 22-foot three point shot111–115
- Q46.5Shaedon Sharpe enters the game for Donovan Clingan111–115
- Q46.5Trail Blazers Full timeout111–115
- Q46.5Khris Middleton makes free throw 2 of 2111–115
- Q46.5Donovan Clingan enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe111–114
- Q46.5Khris Middleton makes free throw 1 of 2111–114
- Q46.5Toumani Camara personal foul111–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:53Deni Avdija makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 104 – 100 WSH · POR 63% → 81% +18POR 63% → 81%+18 pts
- Q42:53Kyshawn George makes 28-foot three pointer (Bilal Coulibaly assists)POR 104 – 106 WSH · WSH 37% → 62% +25WSH 37% → 62%+25 pts
- Q41:37Toumani Camara makes driving layup (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 106 – 108 WSH · POR 15% → 32% +17POR 15% → 32%+17 pts
- Q41:21Bub Carrington makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotPOR 106 – 110 WSH · WSH 70% → 88% +17WSH 70% → 88%+17 pts
- Q420.5Shaedon Sharpe makes 1-foot driving dunkPOR 111 – 112 WSH · POR 4% → 28% +25POR 4% → 28%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- POR -7.5
- ML POR -258 / WSH +210
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -6
- POR 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- POR: Elo 72.9%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -223
- WSH +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 120.0 – 112.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1302 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | −37 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +172 Elo | POR 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 112.326th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 123.129th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.9 | Margin | −10.830th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 108.528th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 119.029th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 103.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 6–1528th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 18th of 301484 | Elo rating | 130230th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+30 Elo- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−10 Elo
Wizards
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–20 | 18–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 17–24 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.