Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints17
- Malik MonkAssists4
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds14
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints29
- Derrick WhiteAssists9
- Neemias QuetaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–112
- Q40.0(00:00) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)93–112
- Q41.0Chris Boucher makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Minott assists)93–112
- Q421.6Nique Clifford makes free throw 2 of 293–109
- Q421.6Nique Clifford makes free throw 1 of 292–109
- Q421.6Josh Minott shooting foul91–109
- Q433.6Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound91–109
- Q437.1Hugo Gonzalez misses 28-foot three point jumper91–109
- Q456.5Devin Carter makes 29-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)91–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:10Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)SAC 1 – 9 BOS · BOS 87% → 90% +3BOS 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q15:20Payton Pritchard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Garza assists)SAC 13 – 23 BOS · BOS 88% → 91% +3BOS 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q12:48Keon Ellis makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Malik Monk assists)SAC 22 – 29 BOS · SAC 9% → 12% +3SAC 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q12:27Luka Garza makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)SAC 22 – 32 BOS · BOS 88% → 91% +3BOS 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q28:12Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)SAC 40 – 47 BOS · SAC 9% → 13% +4SAC 9% → 13%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML SAC +390 / BOS -520
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11
- BOS 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 85.6%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -411
- SAC +411 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 102.5 – 114.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1627 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −51 | −45 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −41 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +310 Elo | BOS 85.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 84.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 84.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 80.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 116.415th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 110.13rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.1 | Margin | +6.33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 118.22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.3 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–21 | Road vs home | 14–810th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 147530th of 30 |
| 26th of 301400 | Elo rating | 16272nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−45 Elo- Jaylen Brown right knee contusion−41 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–30 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 16–17 |
| Underdog | 17–28 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–26 | 19–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 1–4 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.