Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints33
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Jaylen BrownRebounds11
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints36
- Cooper FlaggAssists6
- Daniel GaffordRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–100
- Q49.0shot clock turnover110–100
- Q430.7Jaylen Brown defensive rebound110–100
- Q435.2Dwight Powell misses 23-foot three point jumper110–100
- Q442.4Miles Kelly defensive rebound110–100
- Q443.8Jordan Walsh misses 22-foot three point jumper110–100
- Q41:07Ryan Nembhard makes 27-foot three pointer110–100
- Q41:14Payton Pritchard makes 9-foot two point shot110–97
- Q41:31Dwight Powell makes running layup (Miles Kelly assists)108–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:25Jaylen Brown makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Neemias Queta assists)BOS 12 – 12 DAL · BOS 63% → 69% +6BOS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q14:40Caleb Martin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)BOS 19 – 21 DAL · DAL 30% → 36% +6DAL 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q13:58Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 21 – 24 DAL · DAL 32% → 38% +6DAL 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q210:39Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)BOS 32 – 32 DAL · DAL 27% → 33% +6DAL 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q29:55Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)BOS 37 – 32 DAL · BOS 71% → 77% +6BOS 71% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -7.5
- ML BOS -265 / DAL +215
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5.5
- BOS 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 71.3%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -229
- DAL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 115.5 – 108.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1635 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −14 | BOS: Missing Chris Boucher −1 · DAL: Missing Brandon Williams −11 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +158 Elo | BOS 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 114.121st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 116.620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.0 | Margin | −2.521st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 109.026th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 111.411th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 14–1420th of 30 |
| 30th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301635 | Elo rating | 145721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+2 Elo- Chris Boucher personal−1 Elo
Mavericks
−14 Elo- Brandon Williams right lower leg contusion−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–22 | 23–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–17 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 19–30 | 21–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–2 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Feb 6DAL 127 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 84%Miss
- Jan 25BOS 122 @ DAL 107Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Jun 17DAL 88 @ BOS 106PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- Jun 14BOS 84 @ DAL 122PlayoffsPicked BOS 61%Miss
- Jun 12BOS 106 @ DAL 99PlayoffsPicked BOS 57%Hit
- Jun 9DAL 98 @ BOS 105PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- Jun 6DAL 89 @ BOS 107PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit
- Mar 1DAL 110 @ BOS 138Picked BOS 67%Hit