Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Cade CunninghamRebounds9
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints24
- Grant WilliamsAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–104
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound110–104
- Q40.0LaMelo Ball misses 26-foot three point jumper110–104
- Q410.8Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2110–104
- Q410.8Ausar Thompson enters the game for Daniss Jenkins109–104
- Q410.8Paul Reed enters the game for Kevin Huerter109–104
- Q410.8Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson109–104
- Q410.8LaMelo Ball enters the game for Josh Green109–104
- Q410.8Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2109–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:25Tre Mann makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)DET 47 – 52 CHA · CHA 51% → 59% +8CHA 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q310:55Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)DET 61 – 62 CHA · CHA 41% → 49% +9CHA 41% → 49%+9 pts
- Q410:15Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 91 – 82 CHA · DET 77% → 86% +9DET 77% → 86%+9 pts
- Q48:10Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)DET 91 – 85 CHA · CHA 12% → 21% +9CHA 12% → 21%+9 pts
- Q44:57Kon Knueppel makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Brandon Miller assists)DET 100 – 94 CHA · CHA 7% → 16% +9CHA 7% → 16%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML DET -135 / CHA +114
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- DET: Elo 53.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- CHA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.5 – 110.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | +49 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +26 Elo | DET 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 116.014th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 114.011th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.8 | Margin | +2.013th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 115.110th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.0 | Defense rating | 113.117th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.1 | Pace | 100.322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3016–7 | Road vs home | 11–1322nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 30 |
| 5th of 301612 | Elo rating | 155311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–24 | 32–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–23 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | 24–15 |
| Overs–unders | 21–30 | 21–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–2 CHA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Dec 20CHA 86 @ DET 112Picked DET 80%Hit
- Feb 9CHA 102 @ DET 112Picked DET 84%Hit
- Jan 3CHA 94 @ DET 98Picked DET 72%Hit
- Nov 21DET 121 @ CHA 123Picked DET 57%Miss
- Nov 6DET 107 @ CHA 108Picked DET 51%Miss
- Mar 11CHA 97 @ DET 114Picked DET 53%Hit
- Jan 24CHA 106 @ DET 113Picked DET 53%Hit
- Oct 27DET 111 @ CHA 99Picked CHA 62%Miss