New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints19
- Jordan ClarksonAssists5
- Ariel HukportiRebounds7
Pistons- Daniss JenkinsPoints18
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Tobias HarrisRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game80–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter80–118
- Q48.5Marcus Sasser bad pass
turnover (Trey Jemison III steals)80–118
- Q432.9Jordan Clarkson makes tip shot80–118
- Q435.3Jordan Clarkson offensive rebound78–118
- Q435.3Jordan Clarkson misses running layup78–118
- Q438.6Tyler Kolek defensive rebound78–118
- Q441.9Kevin Huerter misses 25-foot three point jumper78–118
- Q456.6Chaz Lanier offensive rebound78–118
- Q456.6Chaz Lanier misses running pullup jump shot78–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:24Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 3 – 2 DET · NY 31% → 36% +6NY 31% → 36%+6 pts
- Q110:58Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 6 – 2 DET · NY 36% → 42% +6NY 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q13:27Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three pointerNY 12 – 14 DET · DET 62% → 69% +6DET 62% → 69%+6 pts
- Q19.2Jordan Clarkson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 17 – 25 DET · NY 16% → 20% +5NY 16% → 20%+5 pts
- Q10.6Daniss Jenkins makes 25-foot three pointerNY 17 – 28 DET · DET 80% → 84% +5DET 80% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -5.5
- ML NY +180 / DET -218
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -0.5
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.8 pts
- DET: Elo 52.9%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -192
- NY +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 107.0 – 112.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −39 | +8 | NY: Missing OG Anunoby −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −26 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +20 Elo | DET 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 117.59th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 110.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.2 | Margin | +7.23rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 114.411th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.8 | Pace | 102.312th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 20–63rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 148428th of 30 |
| 4th of 301610 | Elo rating | 15887th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−39 Elo- OG Anunoby right toe−17 Elo
Pistons
+8 Elo- Jalen Duren right knee soreness−26 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–24 | 26–24 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–20 | 18–23 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 27–25 | 21–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 8–6 DET in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.
- Jan 5NY 90 @ DET 121Picked NY 53%Miss
- May 1NY 116 @ DET 113PlayoffsPicked DET 51%Miss
- Apr 29DET 106 @ NY 103PlayoffsPicked NY 64%Miss
- Apr 27NY 94 @ DET 93PlayoffsPicked DET 56%Miss
- Apr 24NY 118 @ DET 116PlayoffsPicked NY 54%Hit
- Apr 21DET 100 @ NY 94PlayoffsPicked NY 70%Miss
- Apr 19DET 112 @ NY 123PlayoffsPicked NY 70%Hit
- Apr 10NY 106 @ DET 115Picked DET 59%Hit