Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints39
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints42
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game127–134
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime127–134
- 2OT9.5Mitchell Robinson defensive rebound127–134
- 2OT11.7Jamal Murray misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot127–134
- 2OT18.0Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2127–134
- 2OT18.0Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2127–133
- 2OT18.0Jamal Murray personal take foul127–132
- 2OT22.2Nikola Jokic personal take foul127–132
- 2OT25.3Jalen Brunson defensive rebound127–132
- 2OT27.5Nikola Jokic misses 26-foot three point jumper127–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:14Jalen Brunson makes running layupDEN 106 – 108 NY · NY 52% → 76% +24NY 52% → 76%+24 pts
- Q413.5Jamal Murray makes 14-foot pullup jump shotDEN 108 – 108 NY · DEN 6% → 49% +43DEN 6% → 49%+43 pts
- OT2:03Landry Shamet makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)DEN 115 – 117 NY · NY 43% → 72% +29NY 43% → 72%+29 pts
- OT1:01Karl-Anthony Towns makes layup (Jalen Brunson assists)DEN 117 – 119 NY · NY 52% → 78% +26NY 52% → 78%+26 pts
- OT0.3Christian Braun makes free throw 2 of 2DEN 119 – 119 NY · DEN <1% → 50% +50DEN <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -4.5
- ML DEN +160 / NY -192
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- NY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- NY: Elo 52.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -171
- DEN +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 112.0 – 116.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1607 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NY and DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +28 | +16 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +20 Elo | NY 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.0 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 111.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +6.14th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 117.93rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 111.812th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.3 | Pace | 100.024th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–8 | Road vs home | 20–64th of 30 |
| 27th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 147829th of 30 |
| 4th of 301607 | Elo rating | 16025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–21 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 24–20 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 31–20 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–3 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.