LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints25
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds7
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints31
- Jamal MurrayAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–122
- Q41.4shot clock turnover109–122
- Q425.4Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 1109–122
- Q425.4DaRon Holmes II shooting foul108–122
- Q425.4Jordan Miller makes layup108–122
- Q425.4Jordan Miller offensive rebound106–122
- Q426.5Julian Strawther blocks Yanic Konan Niederhauser 's 1-foot layup106–122
- Q441.6DaRon Holmes II makes dunk (Julian Strawther assists)106–122
- Q458.3Cam Christie makes free throw 1 of 1106–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:02Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)LAC 64 – 68 DEN · DEN 49% → 59% +10DEN 49% → 59%+10 pts
- Q36:31Kris Dunn makes 24-foot running jump shot (James Harden assists)LAC 67 – 68 DEN · LAC 41% → 51% +10LAC 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q34:45John Collins makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 72 – 74 DEN · LAC 36% → 47% +10LAC 36% → 47%+10 pts
- Q33:14Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)LAC 74 – 81 DEN · DEN 61% → 71% +10DEN 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q32:39Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)LAC 76 – 84 DEN · DEN 65% → 75% +10DEN 65% → 75%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAC -142 / DEN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- LAC 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 41.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -129
- DEN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 110.5 – 108.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1613 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +9 | +21 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +57 Elo | DEN 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 120.12nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 115.815th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +4.38th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 119.71st of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 115.423rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 99.426th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 309–15 | Road vs home | 13–914th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 147829th of 30 |
| 11th of 301564 | Elo rating | 16133rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–23 | 28–20 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 17–15 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–23 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 7–9 DEN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.
- Nov 12DEN 130 @ LAC 116Picked DEN 64%Hit
- May 3LAC 101 @ DEN 120PlayoffsPicked DEN 54%Hit
- May 1DEN 105 @ LAC 111PlayoffsPicked LAC 69%Hit
- Apr 29LAC 115 @ DEN 131PlayoffsPicked LAC 54%Miss
- Apr 26DEN 101 @ LAC 99PlayoffsPicked LAC 70%Miss
- Apr 24DEN 83 @ LAC 117PlayoffsPicked LAC 67%Hit
- Apr 21LAC 105 @ DEN 102PlayoffsPicked DEN 50%Miss
- Apr 19LAC 110 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Hit