Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints32
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–124
- Q41.8Jalen Duren defensive rebound121–124
- Q45.0Jamal Murray misses free throw 3 of 3121–124
- Q45.0Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for Christian Braun121–124
- Q45.0Tobias Harris enters the game for Javonte Green121–124
- Q45.0Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 3121–124
- Q45.0Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 3120–124
- Q45.0Cade Cunningham shooting foul119–124
- Q49.4Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2119–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:17Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three pointerDEN 25 – 26 DET · DEN 30% → 36% +6DEN 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q42:05Jamal Murray makes 23-foot running jump shot (Julian Strawther assists)DEN 110 – 112 DET · DEN 9% → 28% +19DEN 9% → 28%+19 pts
- Q41:46Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DEN 110 – 115 DET · DET 73% → 92% +19DET 73% → 92%+19 pts
- Q41:29Jamal Murray makes 7-foot two point shotDEN 112 – 115 DET · DEN 6% → 17% +11DEN 6% → 17%+11 pts
- Q41:16Cade Cunningham makes driving layupDEN 112 – 117 DET · DET 85% → 95% +11DET 85% → 95%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -5.5
- ML DEN +160 / DET -192
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- DET: Elo 58.1%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -171
- DEN +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 112.0 – 117.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1610 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +49 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +57 Elo | DET 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.9 | Points scored | 117.38th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.2 | Margin | +7.62nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 114.312th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 106.82nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.3 | Pace | 102.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–7 | Road vs home | 19–53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 148426th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301611 | Elo rating | 16104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–21 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 30–20 | 19–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–1 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.