Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists13
- Cason WallaceRebounds6
Nuggets- Peyton WatsonPoints29
- Jamal MurrayAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–111
- Q412.8Julian Strawther makes free throw 2 of 2121–111
- Q412.8Nuggets offensive team rebound121–110
- Q412.8Julian Strawther misses free throw 1 of 2121–110
- Q412.8Brooks Barnhizer shooting foul121–110
- Q418.9Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound121–110
- Q422.3Ousmane Dieng misses 25-foot three point jumper121–110
- Q439.6Hunter Tyson makes free throw 2 of 2121–110
- Q439.6Hunter Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2121–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:59Jalen Pickett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)OKC 74 – 70 DEN · DEN 20% → 27% +8DEN 20% → 27%+8 pts
- Q36:18Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 77 – 71 DEN · OKC 70% → 78% +8OKC 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q36:02Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)OKC 77 – 74 DEN · DEN 22% → 30% +8DEN 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q35:50Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)OKC 80 – 74 DEN · OKC 70% → 78% +8OKC 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q35:17Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)OKC 83 – 74 DEN · OKC 78% → 85% +7OKC 78% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML OKC -230 / DEN +190
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1
- OKC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 46.7%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -202
- DEN +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.5 – 109.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1676 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −20 | +21 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +23 Elo | DEN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.3 | Points scored | 120.12nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 115.614th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.3 | Margin | +4.58th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.3 | Defense rating | 115.522nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–6 | Road vs home | 14–912th of 30 |
| 26th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 147929th of 30 |
| 1st of 301676 | Elo rating | 16233rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–26 | 29–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 17–15 |
| Underdog | — | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 9–6 DEN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.
- May 18DEN 93 @ OKC 125PlayoffsPicked OKC 73%Hit
- May 15OKC 107 @ DEN 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 64%Miss
- May 13DEN 105 @ OKC 112PlayoffsPicked OKC 79%Hit
- May 11OKC 92 @ DEN 87PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Hit
- May 9OKC 104 @ DEN 113PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Miss
- May 7DEN 106 @ OKC 149PlayoffsPicked OKC 78%Hit
- May 5DEN 121 @ OKC 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 79%Miss
- Mar 10DEN 140 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 76%Miss