Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds6
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–123
- Q48.7Kenrich Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chris Youngblood assists)111–123
- Q410.6Rob Dillingham out of bounds lost ball turnover108–123
- Q412.5Ousmane Dieng lost ball turnover (Rob Dillingham steals)108–123
- Q417.6Rob Dillingham bad pass
turnover (Ousmane Dieng steals)108–123
- Q428.8Joan Beringer defensive rebound108–123
- Q432.8Chris Youngblood misses 24-foot running jump shot108–123
- Q437.6Jaylin Williams defensive rebound108–123
- Q440.0Rob Dillingham misses 22-foot pullup jump shot108–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:11Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 16 – 22 MIN · MIN 44% → 50% +7MIN 44% → 50%+7 pts
- Q12:37Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 16 – 25 MIN · MIN 51% → 58% +7MIN 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q27:34Isaiah Joe makes 24-foot running jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 34 – 45 MIN · OKC 27% → 34% +7OKC 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q23:20Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 45 – 56 MIN · OKC 25% → 32% +7OKC 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q22:08Naz Reid makes 25-foot three pointer (Anthony Edwards assists)OKC 45 – 59 MIN · MIN 69% → 76% +7MIN 69% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -5.5
- ML OKC -205 / MIN +170
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3
- OKC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 61.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -181
- MIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.5 – 111.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1691 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | +19 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +82 Elo | OKC 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.5 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 114.111th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.8 | Margin | +4.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 115.09th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.9 | Defense rating | 110.35th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.810th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–5 | Road vs home | 16–88th of 30 |
| 26th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301691 | Elo rating | 15807th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–25 | 21–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–25 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | — | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 9–6 MIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.
- Dec 19OKC 107 @ MIN 112Picked OKC 69%Miss
- Nov 26MIN 105 @ OKC 113Picked OKC 79%Hit
- May 28MIN 94 @ OKC 124PlayoffsPicked OKC 75%Hit
- May 26OKC 128 @ MIN 126PlayoffsPicked OKC 57%Hit
- May 24OKC 101 @ MIN 143PlayoffsPicked OKC 57%Miss
- May 22MIN 103 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 74%Hit
- May 20MIN 88 @ OKC 114PlayoffsPicked OKC 71%Hit
- Feb 24MIN 131 @ OKC 128Picked OKC 83%Miss