Detroit Pistons at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints40
- Grayson AllenAssists5
- Oso IghodaroRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–114
- Q45.8shot clock turnover96–114
- Q428.0Nigel Hayes-Davis defensive rebound96–114
- Q430.5Paul Reed misses driving layup96–114
- Q440.8Jamaree Bouyea out of bounds lost ball turnover96–114
- Q41:00Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 296–114
- Q41:00Pistons offensive team rebound95–114
- Q41:00Daniss Jenkins misses free throw 1 of 295–114
- Q41:00Khaman Maluach shooting foul95–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:58Collin Gillespie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamaree Bouyea assists)DET 31 – 39 PHX · PHX 55% → 62% +7PHX 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q210:02Ryan Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Livers assists)DET 33 – 44 PHX · PHX 62% → 69% +7PHX 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q39:13Tobias Harris makes 23-foot running jump shot (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 68 – 76 PHX · DET 24% → 31% +8DET 24% → 31%+8 pts
- Q35:59Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)DET 74 – 80 PHX · PHX 55% → 65% +10PHX 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q35:39Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 76 – 83 PHX · PHX 59% → 68% +10PHX 59% → 68%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -155 / PHX +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- DET: Elo 61.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- PHX +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 109.0 – 105.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | −32 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +82 Elo | DET 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 111.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.2 | Margin | +2.411th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 113.215th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.1 | Defense rating | 110.87th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.3 | Pace | 100.421st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3015–6 | Road vs home | 15–66th of 30 |
| 26th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301615 | Elo rating | 156411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–21 | 31–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–20 | 16–6 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 18–27 | 19–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.