Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints12
- Danny WolfAssists4
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds11
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game77–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter77–130
- Q417.8shot clock turnover77–130
- Q441.8E.J. Liddell makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot77–130
- Q458.5Marcus Sasser makes 18-foot pullup jump shot75–130
- Q41:19Jalen Wilson makes 5-foot reverse layup (Danny Wolf assists)75–128
- Q41:39Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 273–128
- Q41:39Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 273–127
- Q41:39Jalen Wilson shooting foul73–126
- Q41:59Paul Reed defensive rebound73–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:36Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)BKN 11 – 9 DET · DET 75% → 80% +5DET 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q17:02Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)BKN 13 – 12 DET · DET 76% → 81% +5DET 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q29:51Cam Thomas makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)BKN 32 – 33 DET · BKN 14% → 18% +5BKN 14% → 18%+5 pts
- Q29:16Javonte Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)BKN 32 – 36 DET · DET 81% → 86% +5DET 81% → 86%+5 pts
- Q26:39Javonte Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)BKN 36 – 43 DET · DET 85% → 89% +4DET 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DET -13.5
- ML BKN +500 / DET -700
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -12
- DET 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- DET: Elo 87.7%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -525
- BKN +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 100.5 – 114.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1342 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +35 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −36 | BKN crossed 2 time zones and DET crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +341 Elo | DET 87.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 86.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 86.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.7 | Points scored | 117.110th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 110.44th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.7 | Margin | +6.73rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 102.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 307–17 | Road vs home | 18–53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148824th of 30 |
| 28th of 301342 | Elo rating | 16034th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–23 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 17–21 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 20–27 | 19–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–5 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 7DET 125 @ BKN 107Picked DET 76%Hit
- Mar 1BKN 94 @ DET 115Picked DET 84%Hit
- Jan 8DET 113 @ BKN 98Picked DET 78%Hit
- Nov 3DET 106 @ BKN 92Picked BKN 58%Miss
- Apr 6DET 103 @ BKN 113Picked BKN 75%Hit
- Mar 7BKN 112 @ DET 118Picked BKN 52%Miss
- Dec 26BKN 118 @ DET 112Picked BKN 66%Hit
- Dec 23DET 115 @ BKN 126Picked BKN 70%Hit