Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints23
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists8
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–124
- Q43.4Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson131–124
- Q43.4Tobias Harris makes free throw 2 of 2131–124
- Q43.4Tobias Harris makes free throw 1 of 2130–124
- Q43.4Quinten Post enters the game for Draymond Green129–124
- Q43.4Draymond Green personal foul129–124
- Q46.9Draymond Green enters the game for Buddy Hield129–124
- Q46.9Cade Cunningham vs. Moses Moody (Tobias Harris gains possession)129–124
- Q411.7Cade Cunningham defensive rebound129–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:56Gui Santos makes 27-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)DET 117 – 112 GS · GS 15% → 26% +11GS 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q46:19Buddy Hield makes 3-foot layup (Pat Spencer assists)DET 117 – 114 GS · GS 25% → 35% +10GS 25% → 35%+10 pts
- Q44:18Al Horford makes 1-foot two point shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)DET 120 – 116 GS · GS 16% → 25% +10GS 16% → 25%+10 pts
- Q43:52Daniss Jenkins makes driving layupDET 122 – 116 GS · DET 76% → 86% +10DET 76% → 86%+10 pts
- Q43:25De'Anthony Melton makes running layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)DET 122 – 118 GS · GS 13% → 23% +10GS 13% → 23%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -2.5
- ML DET +110 / GS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- GS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- GS: Elo 50.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.0 – 114.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | −25 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +1 Elo | GS 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 52.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 116.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 113.610th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+6.7 | Margin | +2.910th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 113.514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 110.77th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.2 | Pace | 102.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3015–7 | Road vs home | 17–77th of 30 |
| 26th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 6th of 301595 | Elo rating | 157510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–22 | 24–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–28 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–4 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.