Portland Trail Blazers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints26
- Caleb LoveAssists4
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds11
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Josh HartAssists5
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–127
- Q46.2shot clock turnover97–127
- Q429.3Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound97–127
- Q432.4Caleb Love misses 22-foot three point jumper97–127
- Q434.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound97–127
- Q436.4Caleb Love misses 23-foot three point jumper97–127
- Q448.5Mohamed Diawara makes 14-foot step back jumpshot97–127
- Q41:06Caleb Love makes running layup97–125
- Q41:11Tyler Kolek bad pass
turnover (Caleb Love steals)95–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:36OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)POR 2 – 8 NY · NY 73% → 79% +5NY 73% → 79%+5 pts
- Q17:38Shaedon Sharpe makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 5 – 8 NY · POR 22% → 27% +5POR 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q16:50Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 8 – 10 NY · POR 23% → 29% +5POR 23% → 29%+5 pts
- Q15:32Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mitchell Robinson assists)POR 10 – 15 NY · NY 71% → 77% +5NY 71% → 77%+5 pts
- Q29.6Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 48 – 59 NY · NY 82% → 87% +5NY 82% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML POR +205 / NY -250
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- NY: Elo 65.0%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- NY -218
- POR +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.5 – 115.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +10 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +107 Elo | NY 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 71.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 117.67th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 112.68th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.9 | Margin | +5.05th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 117.53rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 112.515th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.5 | Pace | 100.024th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 18–64th of 30 |
| 4th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 148228th of 30 |
| 19th of 301473 | Elo rating | 157410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–21 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 21–20 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–25 | 24–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–5 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.