New York Knicks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints23
- Josh HartAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds15
Wizards- Will RileyPoints17
- AJ JohnsonAssists4
- Alex SarrRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–101
- Q416.6AJ Johnson makes 33-foot three point jumper (Skal Labissiere assists)132–101
- Q417.5Skal Labissiere offensive rebound132–98
- Q420.4Will Riley misses 13-foot pullup jump shot132–98
- Q429.0Will Riley defensive rebound132–98
- Q433.9Dillon Jones misses running pullup jump shot132–98
- Q437.4Tyler Kolek defensive rebound132–98
- Q440.2AJ Johnson misses running layup132–98
- Q444.7Ariel Hukporti lost ball turnover (Anthony Gill steals)132–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:40Jalen Brunson makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotNY 2 – 0 WSH · NY 83% → 85% +3NY 83% → 85%+3 pts
- Q110:48OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 5 – 0 WSH · NY 85% → 88% +3NY 85% → 88%+3 pts
- Q110:04Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Sarr assists)NY 7 – 3 WSH · WSH 10% → 13% +3WSH 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q19:04Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 12 – 5 WSH · NY 87% → 90% +3NY 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q18:39Josh Hart makes 28-foot three pointerNY 15 – 7 WSH · NY 88% → 91% +3NY 88% → 91%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -12.5
- ML NY -625 / WSH +455
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9
- NY 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NY: Elo 81.0%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -478
- WSH +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 120.0 – 107.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1322 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −4 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +251 Elo | NY 81.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 81.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 81.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 112.326th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 122.529th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.6 | Margin | −10.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 108.528th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 118.429th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.9 | Pace | 103.08th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 9–1627th of 30 |
| 29th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 5th of 301595 | Elo rating | 132230th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–24 | 21–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 20–25 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 24–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 8–0 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Nov 3WSH 102 @ NY 119Picked NY 84%Hit
- Mar 22WSH 103 @ NY 122Picked NY 89%Hit
- Dec 30NY 126 @ WSH 106Picked NY 85%Hit
- Dec 28NY 136 @ WSH 132Picked NY 86%Hit
- Nov 18WSH 106 @ NY 134Picked NY 86%Hit
- Jan 18WSH 109 @ NY 113Picked NY 77%Hit
- Jan 6NY 121 @ WSH 105Picked NY 69%Hit
- Nov 17NY 120 @ WSH 99Picked NY 58%Hit