Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints37
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Wizards- Malaki BranhamPoints17
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists6
- Anthony GillRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game142–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter142–111
- Q40.9shot clock turnover142–111
- Q423.3Jake LaRavia defensive rebound142–111
- Q427.1Jamir Watkins misses 30-foot three point jumper142–111
- Q436.1Maxi Kleber makes 4-foot pullup jump shot (Drew Timme assists)142–111
- Q452.5Dalton Knecht defensive rebound140–111
- Q455.1Sharife Cooper misses 21-foot pullup jump shot140–111
- Q41:03Maxi Kleber makes 1-foot driving dunk (Drew Timme assists)140–111
- Q41:13Maxi Kleber defensive rebound138–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:18Justin Champagnie makes 24-foot running jump shot (Kyshawn George assists)LAL 4 – 3 WSH · WSH 16% → 20% +4WSH 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q19:51Bub Carrington makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotLAL 4 – 6 WSH · WSH 20% → 25% +5WSH 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q18:34Bub Carrington makes 25-foot running jump shot (Kyshawn George assists)LAL 8 – 9 WSH · WSH 19% → 23% +5WSH 19% → 23%+5 pts
- Q18:20LeBron James makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 11 – 9 WSH · LAL 77% → 81% +5LAL 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q17:52Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)LAL 14 – 11 WSH · LAL 78% → 83% +5LAL 78% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -10.5
- ML LAL -470 / WSH +360
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -8.5
- LAL 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 79.6%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -379
- WSH +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 120.0 – 109.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1323 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −8 | −52 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +237 Elo | LAL 79.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 81.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 80.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 112.226th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 122.329th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −10.129th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 108.428th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 118.128th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.3 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 8–1528th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 14th of 301512 | Elo rating | 132330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–21 | 20–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–10 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 19–24 |
| Overs–unders | 26–20 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–0 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.