Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints29
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Jarred VanderbiltRebounds6
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints25
- Jaylon TysonAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–129
- Q410.2shot clock turnover99–129
- Q434.4Drew Timme makes 11-foot turnaround jump shot99–129
- Q455.3Tyrese Proctor makes layup (Lonzo Ball assists)97–129
- Q41:16Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound97–127
- Q41:19Jake LaRavia misses 23-foot three point jumper97–127
- Q41:31Tyrese Proctor makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot97–127
- Q41:42Bronny James makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot97–124
- Q41:55Dalton Knecht defensive rebound94–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:30Gabe Vincent makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)LAL 35 – 26 CLE · LAL 57% → 64% +7LAL 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q25:36Jaylon Tyson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)LAL 42 – 41 CLE · CLE 47% → 55% +8CLE 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q22:16Jaylon Tyson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)LAL 49 – 50 CLE · CLE 51% → 60% +8CLE 51% → 60%+8 pts
- Q310:05Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)LAL 57 – 64 CLE · CLE 68% → 76% +8CLE 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q39:38Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three pointerLAL 59 – 67 CLE · CLE 71% → 78% +7CLE 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML LAL +136 / CLE -162
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -146
- LAL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.0 – 118.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −49 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +28 Elo | CLE 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 119.04th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 116.520th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.510th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 115.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.99th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3016–9 | Road vs home | 16–1114th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 13th of 301532 | Elo rating | 15717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–20 | 18–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–10 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–2 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.