Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds15
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints25
- Jalen BrunsonAssists13
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–112
- Q40.9Trey Jemison III defensive rebound100–112
- Q40.9Nick Smith Jr. misses 17-foot pullup jump shot100–112
- Q414.5Maxi Kleber defensive rebound100–112
- Q417.2Dillon Jones misses 12-foot step back jumpshot100–112
- Q426.6Trey Jemison III offensive rebound100–112
- Q429.7Ariel Hukporti misses 5-foot two point shot100–112
- Q441.0Maxi Kleber makes free throw 2 of 2100–112
- Q441.0Lakers offensive team rebound99–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:03OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)LAL 60 – 60 NY · NY 52% → 61% +9NY 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q34:13Gabe Vincent makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 74 – 75 NY · LAL 27% → 37% +10LAL 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q33:45Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 77 – 75 NY · LAL 37% → 48% +11LAL 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q31:10Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)LAL 79 – 84 NY · NY 66% → 76% +10NY 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q49:50Josh Hart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)LAL 88 – 95 NY · NY 74% → 84% +10NY 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML LAL +185 / NY -225
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NY: Elo 67.1%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -197
- LAL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.0 – 116.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +12 | LAL: Missing Austin Reaves −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +124 Elo | NY 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 117.87th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 112.38th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +5.55th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.4 | Pace | 100.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 19–64th of 30 |
| 24th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 148228th of 30 |
| 14th of 301520 | Elo rating | 15887th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−7 Elo- Austin Reaves left calf strain−23 Elo
Knicks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–21 | 25–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–10 | 22–20 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–20 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–1 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.