Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints35
- DeMar DeRozanAssists5
- Zach LaVineRebounds6
Wizards- Will RileyPoints18
- Will RileyAssists6
- Skal LabissiereRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–116
- Q41.0Kings offensive team rebound112–116
- Q41.0Zach LaVine misses heave jump shot112–116
- Q43.5Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2112–116
- Q43.5Wizards offensive team rebound112–115
- Q43.5Sharife Cooper misses free throw 1 of 2112–115
- Q43.5Nique Clifford personal foul112–115
- Q43.6Sharife Cooper defensive rebound112–115
- Q47.3Zach LaVine misses running pullup jump shot112–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:05Will Riley makes 26-foot three pointer (AJ Johnson assists)SAC 105 – 105 WSH · WSH 29% → 49% +20WSH 29% → 49%+20 pts
- Q43:43DeMar DeRozan makes 16-foot pullup jump shotSAC 107 – 105 WSH · SAC 50% → 65% +15SAC 50% → 65%+15 pts
- Q42:47Skal Labissiere makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)SAC 109 – 108 WSH · WSH 19% → 41% +22WSH 19% → 41%+22 pts
- Q42:07Will Riley makes 25-foot three pointer (Skal Labissiere assists)SAC 109 – 111 WSH · WSH 40% → 69% +29WSH 40% → 69%+29 pts
- Q41:16Skal Labissiere makes 6-foot hook shot (Will Riley assists)SAC 110 – 113 WSH · WSH 62% → 83% +21WSH 62% → 83%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -1.5
- ML SAC -118 / WSH -102
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- SAC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- SAC: Elo 52.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- SAC -107
- WSH +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.0 – 112.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1316 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | −23 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +18 Elo | SAC 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 112.226th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 122.729th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.3 | Margin | −10.530th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 108.328th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 118.529th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.1 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–22 | Road vs home | 8–1628th of 30 |
| 1st of 301536 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 26th of 301397 | Elo rating | 131630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–31 | 20–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 17–29 | 19–25 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.