Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Will RileyPoints20
- Will RileyAssists5
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds7
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints30
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Ronald Holland IIRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–117
- Q49.1shot clock turnover126–117
- Q431.1Will Riley defensive rebound126–117
- Q433.4Cade Cunningham misses running layup126–117
- Q439.2Caris LeVert defensive rebound126–117
- Q441.1Bilal Coulibaly misses free throw 2 of 2126–117
- Q441.1Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2126–117
- Q441.1Cade Cunningham personal foul125–117
- Q444.3Duncan Robinson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)125–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:19Will Riley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 104 – 97 DET · WSH 50% → 65% +15WSH 50% → 65%+15 pts
- Q44:34Sharife Cooper makes 26-foot three pointerWSH 112 – 103 DET · WSH 74% → 87% +14WSH 74% → 87%+14 pts
- Q44:15Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)WSH 112 – 106 DET · DET 11% → 25% +13DET 11% → 25%+13 pts
- Q43:47Marcus Sasser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)WSH 114 – 110 DET · DET 17% → 34% +17DET 17% → 34%+17 pts
- Q43:15Bilal Coulibaly makes 30-foot jump bank shot (Anthony Gill assists)WSH 117 – 110 DET · WSH 69% → 86% +17WSH 69% → 86%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DET -16.5
- ML WSH +750 / DET -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -14.5
- DET 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- DET: Elo 91.4%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -785
- WSH +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 105.5 – 122.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1315 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | +35 | WSH: Missing Tre Johnson −10, Skal Labissiere −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +410 Elo | DET 91.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 89.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 89.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 117.58th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.7 | Points allowed | 109.93rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.6 | Margin | +7.52nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 114.511th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.6 | Defense rating | 107.12nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.0 | Pace | 102.312th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 304–19 | Road vs home | 20–52nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 148825th of 30 |
| 30th of 301315 | Elo rating | 16144th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−40 Elo- Tre Johnson not with team−10 Elo
- Skal Labissiere not with team−9 Elo
Pistons
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–28 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 18–22 |
| Underdog | 20–26 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–5 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Nov 10WSH 135 @ DET 137Picked DET 81%Hit
- Mar 13WSH 129 @ DET 125Picked DET 85%Miss
- Mar 11WSH 103 @ DET 123Picked DET 88%Hit
- Nov 17DET 124 @ WSH 104Picked DET 64%Hit
- Mar 29DET 96 @ WSH 87Picked WSH 62%Miss
- Jan 27WSH 118 @ DET 104Picked DET 52%Miss
- Jan 15DET 129 @ WSH 117Picked WSH 66%Miss
- Nov 27WSH 126 @ DET 107Picked DET 58%Miss