Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- CJ McCollumPoints38
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists5
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerRebounds12
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints30
- Julius RandleAssists10
- Julius RandleRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–138
- Q40.0Hawks offensive team rebound116–138
- Q40.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot116–138
- Q420.8Julius Randle lost ball turnover (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)116–138
- Q423.8Julius Randle offensive rebound116–138
- Q427.4Jaden McDaniels misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot116–138
- Q449.9Julius Randle defensive rebound116–138
- Q451.0Onyeka Okongwu misses free throw 2 of 2116–138
- Q451.0Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2116–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:57CJ McCollum makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotATL 3 – 2 MIN · ATL 24% → 29% +5ATL 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q110:40Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)ATL 3 – 5 MIN · MIN 71% → 76% +5MIN 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q16:12Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 18 – 18 MIN · ATL 23% → 28% +5ATL 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q12:30Jock Landale makes 25-foot running jump shot (Corey Kispert assists)ATL 28 – 31 MIN · ATL 18% → 23% +5ATL 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q11:33Bones Hyland makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)ATL 30 – 36 MIN · MIN 77% → 82% +5MIN 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML ATL +260 / MIN -325
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.6%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -275
- ATL +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.5 – 124.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −56 | +1 | ATL: Missing Dyson Daniels −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +112 Elo | MIN 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 119.15th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 114.812th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +4.37th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 115.58th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 111.410th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.6 | Pace | 102.510th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 17–1011th of 30 |
| 9th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 16th of 301490 | Elo rating | 154911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−56 Elo- Dyson Daniels right ankle bursitis−8 Elo
Timberwolves
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–28 | 23–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 17–26 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–26 | 26–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–2 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.