Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints33
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints20
- Ty JeromeAssists6
- Jock LandaleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–114
- Q41.2shot clock turnover131–114
- Q425.2GG Jackson makes running dunk131–114
- Q428.1Anthony Edwards bad pass
turnover (Cam Spencer steals)131–112
- Q441.7GG Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)131–112
- Q444.3Javon Small offensive rebound131–109
- Q447.1Jaylen Wells misses 25-foot three point jumper131–109
- Q453.9Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)131–109
- Q41:09Jaylen Clark defensive rebound128–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:01Jock Landale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)MIN 2 – 7 MEM · MEM 24% → 29% +5MEM 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q19:48Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 5 – 7 MEM · MIN 71% → 76% +5MIN 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q19:26Julius Randle makes 25-foot running jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 8 – 7 MEM · MIN 76% → 80% +5MIN 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q311:40Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot three pointer (Jock Landale assists)MIN 58 – 52 MEM · MEM 11% → 15% +5MEM 11% → 15%+5 pts
- Q311:21Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 61 – 52 MEM · MIN 85% → 89% +5MIN 85% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -11.5
- ML MIN -485 / MEM +370
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6.5
- MIN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 74.5%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -390
- MEM +390 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 120.5 – 109.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | −36 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +186 Elo | MIN 74.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 77.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 79.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 114.620th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 116.318th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | −1.720th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 110.225th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.7 | Pace | 103.47th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 9–1423rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 6th of 301595 | Elo rating | 146320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−36 Elo- Scotty Pippen Jr. toe surgery−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–27 | 19–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–22 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 10–19 |
| Overs–unders | 23–26 | 19–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–3 MEM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Dec 17MEM 116 @ MIN 110Picked MIN 70%Miss
- Apr 10MIN 141 @ MEM 125Picked MIN 54%Hit
- Jan 20MIN 106 @ MEM 108Picked MEM 64%Hit
- Jan 11MEM 127 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 54%Miss
- Feb 28MEM 101 @ MIN 110Picked MIN 73%Hit
- Jan 18MEM 103 @ MIN 118Picked MIN 70%Hit
- Dec 8MIN 127 @ MEM 103Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Nov 26MIN 119 @ MEM 97Picked MIN 66%Hit