LA Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints41
- Kris DunnAssists6
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints23
- Naz ReidAssists3
- Naz ReidRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–96
- Q42.0shot clock turnover115–96
- Q426.0Jaylen Clark makes running dunk115–96
- Q429.1Dalano Banton lost ball turnover (Jaylen Clark steals)115–94
- Q450.2Jaylen Clark makes 23-foot three point jumper (Joe Ingles assists)115–94
- Q458.8Enrique Freeman defensive rebound115–91
- Q41:00Dalano Banton misses two point shot115–91
- Q41:12Jaylen Clark makes tip shot115–91
- Q41:12Jaylen Clark offensive rebound115–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:16John Collins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)LAC 37 – 36 MIN · LAC 25% → 31% +7LAC 25% → 31%+7 pts
- Q24:25Kris Dunn makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)LAC 44 – 38 MIN · LAC 38% → 45% +8LAC 38% → 45%+8 pts
- Q38:46Julius Randle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)LAC 63 – 50 MIN · MIN 21% → 28% +7MIN 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q35:24Kawhi Leonard makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Brook Lopez assists)LAC 65 – 56 MIN · LAC 58% → 64% +7LAC 58% → 64%+7 pts
- Q33:16Kobe Sanders makes 23-foot running jump shot (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 70 – 56 MIN · LAC 74% → 82% +8LAC 74% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML LAC +285 / MIN -360
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6.5
- MIN 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 73.4%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -301
- LAC +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 107.0 – 115.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −76 | +9 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +176 Elo | MIN 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 74.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 119.55th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 114.812th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +4.77th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 115.85th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 111.310th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 102.610th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 17–97th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 12th of 301544 | Elo rating | 15767th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–27 | 23–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–24 | 26–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–7 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Dec 6LAC 106 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 76%Hit
- Jan 6LAC 106 @ MIN 108Picked MIN 55%Hit
- Dec 4MIN 108 @ LAC 80Picked MIN 63%Hit
- Nov 29LAC 92 @ MIN 93Picked MIN 69%Hit
- Mar 12MIN 118 @ LAC 100Picked LAC 59%Miss
- Mar 3LAC 89 @ MIN 88Picked MIN 60%Miss
- Feb 12MIN 121 @ LAC 100Picked LAC 61%Miss
- Jan 14LAC 105 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 53%Hit