LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints25
- Kawhi LeonardAssists5
- Ivica ZubacRebounds20
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints23
- Grayson AllenAssists8
- Mark WilliamsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–93
- Q414.6shot clock turnover117–93
- Q425.0Cam Christie defensive rebound117–93
- Q427.7Yanic Konan Niederhauser blocks Ryan Dunn 's 8-foot pullup jump shot117–93
- Q442.1Kobe Brown makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jordan Miller assists)117–93
- Q41:03Jordan Miller defensive rebound115–93
- Q41:03Rasheer Fleming misses 4-foot two point shot115–93
- Q41:06Rasheer Fleming offensive rebound115–93
- Q41:09Jamaree Bouyea misses 19-foot step back jumpshot115–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:04Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)LAC 42 – 42 PHX · PHX 47% → 55% +8PHX 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q311:14Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)LAC 52 – 46 PHX · PHX 29% → 37% +8PHX 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q34:03Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 73 – 66 PHX · PHX 21% → 30% +9PHX 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q33:31Brook Lopez makes 22-foot running jump shot (Kobe Sanders assists)LAC 76 – 66 PHX · LAC 70% → 79% +9LAC 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q33:16Jordan Goodwin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)LAC 76 – 69 PHX · PHX 21% → 29% +9PHX 21% → 29%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML LAC +124 / PHX -148
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- PHX: Elo 63.8%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -134
- LAC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 103.5 – 106.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | −20 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +98 Elo | PHX 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 114.222nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 111.35th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 113.414th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 110.57th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–16 | Road vs home | 17–65th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 11th of 301554 | Elo rating | 15956th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–24 | 33–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 16–6 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–7 PHX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Nov 8PHX 114 @ LAC 103Picked LAC 63%Miss
- Nov 6LAC 102 @ PHX 115Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Oct 24PHX 102 @ LAC 129Picked LAC 78%Hit
- Mar 4LAC 117 @ PHX 119Picked LAC 57%Miss
- Jan 27LAC 109 @ PHX 111Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Oct 31PHX 125 @ LAC 119Picked PHX 62%Hit
- Oct 23PHX 116 @ LAC 113Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Apr 10PHX 124 @ LAC 108Picked PHX 64%Hit