Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- De'Andre HunterPoints17
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds7
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints27
- Collin GillespieAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–126
- Q417.4shot clock turnover113–126
- Q435.8Larry Nance Jr. personal foul113–126
- Q435.8Isaiah Livers defensive rebound113–126
- Q440.2Lonzo Ball misses 26-foot running jump shot113–126
- Q442.4Thomas Bryant defensive rebound113–126
- Q447.3Jamaree Bouyea misses 27-foot three point jumper113–126
- Q41:10Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 1-foot dunk (Tyrese Proctor assists)113–126
- Q41:12Nigel Hayes-Davis lost ball turnover (Nae'Qwan Tomlin steals)111–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:13Thomas Bryant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Proctor assists)CLE 35 – 36 PHX · CLE 42% → 50% +8CLE 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q27:03Jamaree Bouyea makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)CLE 35 – 39 PHX · PHX 50% → 58% +8PHX 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q24:44Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamaree Bouyea assists)CLE 39 – 44 PHX · PHX 53% → 61% +8PHX 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q21:44Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 45 – 49 PHX · CLE 33% → 41% +8CLE 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q21:13Jalen Green makes 24-foot three pointerCLE 45 – 52 PHX · PHX 59% → 68% +8PHX 59% → 68%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -1.5
- ML CLE -122 / PHX +102
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- CLE 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 47.7%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -111
- PHX +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 111.5 – 110.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −40 | −13 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +16 Elo | PHX 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 111.25th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 113.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 110.66th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.8 | Pace | 100.322nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 16–65th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 6th of 301591 | Elo rating | 15848th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–30 | 32–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 16–6 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27 | 19–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–3 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.