Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints39
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points30
- Ty JeromeAssists8
- GG JacksonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–137
- Q40.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound128–137
- Q40.7Anthony Edwards misses heave jump shot128–137
- Q41.7shot clock turnover128–137
- Q424.7Anthony Edwards makes 2-foot two point shot128–137
- Q432.4Ty Jerome makes free throw 2 of 2126–137
- Q432.4Grizzlies offensive team rebound126–136
- Q432.4Ty Jerome misses free throw 1 of 2126–136
- Q432.4Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul126–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:40Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 61 – 66 MEM · MIN 43% → 52% +9MIN 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q310:37Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)MIN 64 – 69 MEM · MEM 40% → 49% +9MEM 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q37:52Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three pointer (Julius Randle assists)MIN 69 – 75 MEM · MIN 36% → 46% +9MIN 36% → 46%+9 pts
- Q37:15Jaylen Wells makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)MIN 71 – 80 MEM · MEM 55% → 64% +10MEM 55% → 64%+10 pts
- Q32:00Vince Williams Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)MIN 83 – 90 MEM · MEM 53% → 64% +11MEM 53% → 64%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -7.5
- ML MIN -305 / MEM +245
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 70.1%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -260
- MEM +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 120.0 – 112.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −21 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +148 Elo | MIN 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 114.620th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 116.621st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −2.020th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 110.325th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.7 | Pace | 103.47th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 10th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 9–1524th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 5th of 301602 | Elo rating | 145721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−21 Elo- Scotty Pippen Jr. left toe surgery−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–27 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 10–20 |
| Overs–unders | 24–26 | 20–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–3 MEM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Jan 31MIN 131 @ MEM 114Picked MIN 80%Hit
- Dec 17MEM 116 @ MIN 110Picked MIN 70%Miss
- Apr 10MIN 141 @ MEM 125Picked MIN 54%Hit
- Jan 20MIN 106 @ MEM 108Picked MEM 64%Hit
- Jan 11MEM 127 @ MIN 125Picked MIN 54%Miss
- Feb 28MEM 101 @ MIN 110Picked MIN 73%Hit
- Jan 18MEM 103 @ MIN 118Picked MIN 70%Hit
- Dec 8MIN 127 @ MEM 103Picked MIN 64%Hit