LA Clippers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints31
- Kawhi LeonardAssists7
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds9
Kings- Malik MonkPoints18
- Russell WestbrookAssists5
- Dylan CardwellRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–111
- Q41.8Devin Carter makes 2-foot running dunk (Maxime Raynaud assists)114–111
- Q46.9Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound114–109
- Q47.1Kobe Sanders misses free throw 2 of 2114–109
- Q47.1Kobe Sanders makes free throw 1 of 2114–109
- Q47.1Daeqwon Plowden personal take foul113–109
- Q48.0Daeqwon Plowden makes running layup113–109
- Q412.8Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound113–107
- Q415.4Kris Dunn misses free throw 2 of 2113–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:53Malik Monk makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotLAC 81 – 84 SAC · SAC 45% → 58% +13SAC 45% → 58%+13 pts
- Q49:50Brook Lopez makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)LAC 86 – 84 SAC · LAC 50% → 63% +14LAC 50% → 63%+14 pts
- Q48:50Daeqwon Plowden makes 25-foot three point jumperLAC 88 – 87 SAC · SAC 28% → 41% +13SAC 28% → 41%+13 pts
- Q46:52Kris Dunn makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 96 – 89 SAC · LAC 74% → 86% +11LAC 74% → 86%+11 pts
- Q46:12Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 99 – 91 SAC · LAC 79% → 89% +10LAC 79% → 89%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML LAC -166 / SAC +140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 61.8%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -150
- SAC +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.5 – 109.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −70 | −34 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +84 Elo | LAC 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 61.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 110.529th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 120.527th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −10.129th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 108.428th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 118.228th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 101.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 9–1727th of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15281st of 30 |
| 13th of 301540 | Elo rating | 138426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–26 | 19–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 17–29 |
| Overs–unders | 26–24 | 25–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 7–2 SAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Dec 30SAC 90 @ LAC 131Picked LAC 76%Hit
- Apr 11LAC 101 @ SAC 100Picked LAC 70%Hit
- Mar 9SAC 110 @ LAC 111Picked LAC 68%Hit
- Nov 22SAC 88 @ LAC 104Picked SAC 60%Miss
- Nov 8LAC 107 @ SAC 98Picked SAC 68%Miss
- Apr 2LAC 95 @ SAC 109Picked SAC 59%Hit
- Feb 25SAC 123 @ LAC 107Picked LAC 61%Miss
- Dec 12SAC 99 @ LAC 119Picked LAC 54%Hit