Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints28
- Ty JeromeAssists7
- GG JacksonRebounds7
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints24
- DeMar DeRozanAssists5
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–125
- Q42.4GG Jackson defensive rebound129–125
- Q44.3Devin Carter misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot129–125
- Q47.8GG Jackson out of bounds lost ball turnover129–125
- Q47.8GG Jackson defensive rebound129–125
- Q48.3DeMar DeRozan misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot129–125
- Q418.1Cam Spencer makes 28-foot three pointer129–125
- Q435.8DeMar DeRozan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)126–125
- Q443.9Kings Full timeout126–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:06Santi Aldama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)MEM 112 – 108 SAC · MEM 53% → 70% +17MEM 53% → 70%+17 pts
- Q44:21Jaylen Wells makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 117 – 114 SAC · MEM 48% → 68% +20MEM 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q42:08Cam Spencer makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)MEM 122 – 118 SAC · MEM 58% → 83% +25MEM 58% → 83%+25 pts
- Q435.8DeMar DeRozan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)MEM 126 – 125 SAC · SAC 3% → 33% +30SAC 3% → 33%+30 pts
- Q418.1Cam Spencer makes 28-foot three pointerMEM 129 – 125 SAC · MEM 74% → >99% +26MEM 74% → >99%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -2.5
- ML MEM +124 / SAC -148
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- SAC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- SAC: Elo 47.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -134
- MEM +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 117.0 – 119.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | +2 | MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −10, Scotty Pippen Jr. −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SAC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +21 Elo | MEM 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 110.229th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 120.427th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −10.229th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 108.229th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 118.228th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.118th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 21st of 308–13 | Road vs home | 9–1626th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15301st of 30 |
| 18th of 301472 | Elo rating | 139026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−24 Elo- Brandon Clarke right calf strain−10 Elo
- Scotty Pippen Jr. left toe surgery−5 Elo
Kings
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–28 | 19–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 11–20 | 17–29 |
| Overs–unders | 21–27 | 24–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–5 SAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Nov 30MEM 115 @ SAC 107Picked MEM 57%Hit
- Nov 20SAC 96 @ MEM 137Picked MEM 57%Hit
- Mar 17MEM 122 @ SAC 132Picked SAC 59%Hit
- Jan 3MEM 133 @ SAC 138Picked SAC 60%Hit
- Dec 5SAC 110 @ MEM 115Picked MEM 58%Hit
- Mar 18MEM 111 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Jan 29SAC 103 @ MEM 94Picked SAC 57%Hit
- Dec 31SAC 123 @ MEM 92Picked SAC 63%Hit