Philadelphia 76ers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints29
- VJ EdgecombeAssists7
- Dominick BarlowRebounds16
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints29
- Kawhi LeonardAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–113
- Q411.9Trendon Watford defensive rebound128–113
- Q416.0Kobe Brown misses 23-foot three point jumper128–113
- Q430.1Yanic Konan Niederhauser defensive goaltending violation128–113
- Q430.1Quentin Grimes makes running layup (Jabari Walker assists)128–113
- Q435.6Jabari Walker defensive rebound126–113
- Q436.6Adem Bona blocks Kobe Sanders 's 5-foot driving layup126–113
- Q451.1Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2126–113
- Q451.1Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2125–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:44Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot fade away jump shot (Dominick Barlow assists)PHI 5 – 0 LAC · PHI 55% → 62% +6PHI 55% → 62%+6 pts
- Q19:12Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 8 – 2 LAC · PHI 57% → 64% +6PHI 57% → 64%+6 pts
- Q18:46Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 11 – 2 LAC · PHI 64% → 70% +6PHI 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q14:04Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)PHI 24 – 14 LAC · LAC 22% → 28% +5LAC 22% → 28%+5 pts
- Q12:21Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot three pointer (Adem Bona assists)PHI 31 – 18 LAC · PHI 73% → 78% +5PHI 73% → 78%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML PHI -115 / LAC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- PHI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 43.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- LAC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 111.0 – 109.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +27 | −34 | PHI: Missing Paul George −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +49 Elo | LAC 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 51.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 112.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 112.69th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 114.511th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 114.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.3 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 13–914th of 30 |
| 19th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 19th of 301466 | Elo rating | 15809th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+27 Elo- Paul George suspended by league−16 Elo
Clippers
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–20 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–11 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.