Cleveland Cavaliers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints29
- Donovan MitchellAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints25
- Kris DunnAssists6
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–91
- Q46.4Kobe Brown makes driving layup124–91
- Q422.4Larry Nance Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tristan Enaruna assists)124–89
- Q428.9Tristan Enaruna offensive rebound121–89
- Q430.5Tyrese Proctor misses driving floating jump shot121–89
- Q452.5Yanic Konan Niederhauser makes 4-foot driving dunk (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)121–89
- Q457.8Yanic Konan Niederhauser defensive rebound121–87
- Q41:01Keon Ellis misses 27-foot three point jumper121–87
- Q41:17Kobe Brown offensive foul turnover121–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:37Jaylon Tyson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 3 – 0 LAC · CLE 57% → 63% +6CLE 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q14:57Jaylon Tyson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)CLE 22 – 12 LAC · CLE 71% → 77% +5CLE 71% → 77%+5 pts
- Q28:44Kawhi Leonard makes 27-foot three point jumperCLE 40 – 30 LAC · LAC 17% → 22% +5LAC 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q28:26Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)CLE 43 – 30 LAC · CLE 78% → 83% +5CLE 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q26:40Brook Lopez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)CLE 46 – 35 LAC · LAC 15% → 19% +5LAC 15% → 19%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -2.5
- ML CLE -148 / LAC +124
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CLE 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 49.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -134
- LAC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.0 – 109.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −64 | −68 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +4 Elo | LAC 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 112.725th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 112.99th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 114.611th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 114.720th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.9 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 13–1016th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 6th of 301592 | Elo rating | 156410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–31 | 24–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27 | 26–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–2 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.