Cleveland Cavaliers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints40
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists12
- Jarrett AllenRebounds17
Trail Blazers- Caleb LovePoints21
- Donovan ClinganAssists5
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–111
- Q43.2shot clock turnover130–111
- Q423.0Sidy Cissoko makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rayan Rupert assists)130–111
- Q427.2Tyrese Proctor bad pass
turnover (Javonte Cooke steals)130–108
- Q433.7Blake Wesley bad pass
turnover (Craig Porter Jr. steals)130–108
- Q452.4Tristan Enaruna makes two point shot130–108
- Q453.7Tristan Enaruna offensive rebound128–108
- Q455.6Tyrese Proctor misses 22-foot pullup jump shot128–108
- Q41:13Javonte Cooke bad pass
turnover (Craig Porter Jr. steals)128–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:16Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 41 – 38 POR · POR 26% → 33% +7POR 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q25:21Caleb Love makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)CLE 43 – 41 POR · POR 29% → 36% +7POR 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q25:06Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 46 – 41 POR · CLE 64% → 71% +7CLE 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q23:21Caleb Love makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rayan Rupert assists)CLE 48 – 44 POR · POR 24% → 31% +7POR 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q23:08Jaylon Tyson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 51 – 44 POR · CLE 69% → 76% +7CLE 69% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML CLE -180 / POR +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -161
- POR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 116.0 – 112.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −51 | −27 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −38 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +60 Elo | CLE 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 115.119th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 117.622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −2.521st of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 110.824th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 113.217th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.9 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 13–1118th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15184th of 30 |
| 9th of 301579 | Elo rating | 145920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−27 Elo- Deni Avdija lower back sprain−38 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–31 | 27–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27 | 24–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–2 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.