New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints30
- Saddiq BeyAssists5
- Saddiq BeyRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints35
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–115
- Q41.4Trey Murphy III defensive rebound119–115
- Q42.6Anthony Edwards misses 23-foot three point jumper119–115
- Q43.6Anthony Edwards offensive rebound119–115
- Q46.5Naz Reid misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot119–115
- Q410.8Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert119–115
- Q410.8Timberwolves Full timeout119–115
- Q410.8Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2119–115
- Q410.8Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2118–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:52Bryce McGowens makes 24-foot three point jumperNO 105 – 102 MIN · NO 42% → 61% +19NO 42% → 61%+19 pts
- Q43:02Derik Queen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)NO 112 – 106 MIN · NO 68% → 86% +18NO 68% → 86%+18 pts
- Q41:35Anthony Edwards makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Julius Randle assists)NO 112 – 110 MIN · MIN 15% → 32% +17MIN 15% → 32%+17 pts
- Q450.7Bones Hyland makes 25-foot three pointer (Julius Randle assists)NO 114 – 115 MIN · MIN 24% → 68% +44MIN 24% → 68%+44 pts
- Q435.5Zion Williamson makes driving layupNO 116 – 115 MIN · NO 29% → 65% +36NO 29% → 65%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML NO +275 / MIN -345
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10
- MIN 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 83.6%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -291
- NO +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 114.5 – 123.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1351 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +29 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +283 Elo | MIN 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 80.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 80.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.5 | Points scored | 119.63rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 114.812th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.5 | Margin | +4.97th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 115.86th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.0 | Pace | 102.710th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–21 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 30 |
| 4th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301351 | Elo rating | 15906th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–26 | 23–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 17–24 |
| Underdog | 22–25 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–6 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Dec 4MIN 125 @ NO 116Picked MIN 82%Hit
- Dec 2MIN 149 @ NO 142Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Mar 21NO 93 @ MIN 134Picked MIN 86%Hit
- Mar 19NO 119 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 85%Miss
- Jan 7MIN 104 @ NO 97Picked MIN 61%Hit
- Jan 3NO 117 @ MIN 106Picked MIN 63%Miss
- Dec 11MIN 107 @ NO 121Picked MIN 51%Miss
- Nov 18MIN 121 @ NO 120Picked MIN 59%Hit