New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints44
- Zion WilliamsonAssists8
- Yves MissiRebounds7
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints27
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game137–141
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime137–141
- OT1.6Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound137–141
- OT2.6Trey Murphy III misses 23-foot three point jumper137–141
- OT5.2Jose Alvarado enters the game for Yves Missi137–141
- OT5.2Jericho Sims enters the game for Myles Turner137–141
- OT5.2Amir Coffey enters the game for AJ Green137–141
- OT5.2Pelicans Full timeout137–141
- OT5.2Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2137–141
- OT5.2Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2137–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:08Saddiq Bey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 121 – 121 MIL · NO 30% → 53% +23NO 30% → 53%+23 pts
- Q42:50Kyle Kuzma makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)NO 121 – 124 MIL · MIL 47% → 72% +24MIL 47% → 72%+24 pts
- Q41:30Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three pointerNO 126 – 126 MIL · NO 20% → 52% +32NO 20% → 52%+32 pts
- Q442.4Kevin Porter Jr. makes 1-foot driving dunkNO 128 – 128 MIL · MIL 19% → 49% +30MIL 19% → 49%+30 pts
- OT4:11Myles Turner makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)NO 128 – 133 MIL · MIL 60% → 79% +18MIL 60% → 79%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NO -4.5
- ML NO -180 / MIL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- NO 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- NO: Elo 56.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NO -161
- MIL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 114.0 – 109.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1358 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −95 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +48 Elo | NO 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Points scored | 111.527th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 115.615th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.5 | Margin | −4.124th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 111.422nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.2 | Pace | 99.825th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–20 | Road vs home | 10–1222nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 27th of 301358 | Elo rating | 143323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–25 | 20–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–0 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 22–25 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 26–26 | 19–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.