Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints22
- Ayo DosunmuAssists8
- Coby WhiteRebounds10
Bucks- Kyle KuzmaPoints31
- Ryan RollinsAssists10
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–131
- Q47.8shot clock turnover115–131
- Q431.9Dalen Terry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Yuki Kawamura assists)115–131
- Q436.0Yuki Kawamura offensive rebound112–131
- Q438.4Patrick Williams misses dunk112–131
- Q442.4Dalen Terry offensive rebound112–131
- Q444.5Patrick Williams misses 27-foot running jump shot112–131
- Q450.5Yuki Kawamura defensive rebound112–131
- Q451.3Dalen Terry blocks Andre Jackson Jr. 's 11-foot driving layup112–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:37Ryan Rollins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)CHI 13 – 16 MIL · MIL 48% → 55% +7MIL 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q14:27Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 18 – 21 MIL · CHI 38% → 45% +7CHI 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q14:13AJ Green makes 26-foot three pointerCHI 18 – 24 MIL · MIL 55% → 62% +7MIL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q34:26Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)CHI 79 – 90 MIL · MIL 75% → 83% +8MIL 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q33:25Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)CHI 84 – 96 MIL · MIL 76% → 86% +10MIL 76% → 86%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML CHI -118 / MIL -102
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.5 pts
- CHI: Elo 61.2%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CHI -107
- MIL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 112.0 – 110.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −46 | −131 | CHI: Missing Josh Giddey −34, Tre Jones −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +79 Elo | CHI 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 111.127th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 115.615th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.7 | Margin | −4.524th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 111.022nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 115.522nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.0 | Pace | 99.725th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–15 | Road vs home | 9–1222nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301445 | Elo rating | 141425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−46 Elo- Josh Giddey left hamstring strain−34 Elo
- Tre Jones left hamstring strain−19 Elo
Bucks
−131 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–26 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–28 | 18–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–7 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Dec 27MIL 112 @ CHI 103Picked CHI 53%Miss
- Nov 7CHI 110 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 61%Hit
- Dec 28MIL 111 @ CHI 116Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Dec 23MIL 112 @ CHI 91Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Nov 20CHI 106 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Oct 25CHI 133 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 78%Miss
- Mar 1MIL 113 @ CHI 97Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Dec 11CHI 129 @ MIL 133Picked MIL 74%Hit