Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints30
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints25
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–126
- Q41.0Brandon Ingram makes 27-foot turnaround jump shot (Scottie Barnes assists)128–126
- Q43.3Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2128–123
- Q43.3Jaden McDaniels enters the game for Joe Ingles127–123
- Q43.3Timberwolves offensive team rebound127–123
- Q43.3Julius Randle misses free throw 1 of 2127–123
- Q43.3RJ Barrett personal take foul127–123
- Q44.0Joe Ingles enters the game for Jaden McDaniels127–123
- Q44.0Collin Murray-Boyles enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili127–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:24Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)MIN 106 – 111 TOR · TOR 58% → 73% +15TOR 58% → 73%+15 pts
- Q42:26Anthony Edwards makes driving layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 118 – 117 TOR · MIN 42% → 61% +18MIN 42% → 61%+18 pts
- Q42:20Scottie Barnes makes driving dunkMIN 118 – 119 TOR · TOR 39% → 58% +19TOR 39% → 58%+19 pts
- Q42:00Anthony Edwards makes running dunkMIN 120 – 119 TOR · MIN 41% → 61% +20MIN 41% → 61%+20 pts
- Q41:04Anthony Edwards makes 11-foot two point shotMIN 123 – 119 TOR · MIN 77% → 92% +16MIN 77% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -142 / TOR +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 115.5 – 113.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +36 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +57 Elo | MIN 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 113.624th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 112.28th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +1.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 110.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.7 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 14–1117th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 7th of 301586 | Elo rating | 147418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–28 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26 | 20–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.