LA Clippers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints24
- Kris DunnAssists7
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints26
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–102
- Q43.5TyTy Washington Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)95–102
- Q413.5Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 292–102
- Q413.5Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Alperen Sengun92–101
- Q413.5Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 292–101
- Q413.5Bennedict Mathurin shooting foul92–100
- Q436.0Dalano Banton makes 15-foot step back jumpshot92–100
- Q448.5Cam Christie defensive rebound90–100
- Q448.5Amen Thompson misses free throw 2 of 290–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q242.6Alperen Sengun makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 50 – 51 HOU · HOU 61% → 69% +8HOU 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q39:44Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)LAC 56 – 58 HOU · HOU 63% → 71% +8HOU 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q34:44Reed Sheppard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)LAC 62 – 68 HOU · HOU 73% → 81% +8HOU 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q34:32Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 65 – 68 HOU · LAC 19% → 27% +8LAC 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q331.9Jordan Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 72 – 74 HOU · LAC 21% → 30% +10LAC 21% → 30%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -9.5
- ML LAC +250 / HOU -310
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.6%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -265
- LAC +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 102.0 – 111.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | −15 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +82 Elo | HOU 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 70.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 115.119th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 110.04th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +5.15th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 115.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 98.128th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 17–65th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301571 | Elo rating | 15669th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–27 | 23–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 19–27 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 27–25 | 22–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–5 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Dec 23HOU 108 @ LAC 128Picked HOU 71%Miss
- Dec 11LAC 113 @ HOU 115Picked HOU 76%Hit
- Apr 9HOU 117 @ LAC 134Picked LAC 81%Hit
- Dec 8HOU 117 @ LAC 106Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Nov 15LAC 104 @ HOU 125Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Nov 13LAC 103 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 63%Hit
- Apr 14HOU 116 @ LAC 105Picked HOU 63%Hit
- Mar 6LAC 122 @ HOU 116Picked LAC 64%Hit