Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Tari EasonPoints26
- Alperen SengunAssists11
- Alperen SengunRebounds12
Thunder- Cason WallacePoints23
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists11
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–106
- Q42.7Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2112–106
- Q42.7Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2111–106
- Q42.7(00:02.7) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Thunder] charged with a timeout110–106
- Q42.7Thunder Full timeout110–106
- Q42.7Luguentz Dort personal foul110–106
- Q44.5Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three pointer110–106
- Q49.4Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2110–103
- Q49.4Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun109–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:21Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)HOU 93 – 94 OKC · OKC 42% → 59% +17OKC 42% → 59%+17 pts
- Q45:55Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 96 – 94 OKC · HOU 41% → 58% +18HOU 41% → 58%+18 pts
- Q45:17Reed Sheppard makes 1-foot two point shotHOU 98 – 94 OKC · HOU 59% → 71% +12HOU 59% → 71%+12 pts
- Q44:05Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)HOU 100 – 97 OKC · OKC 16% → 32% +16OKC 16% → 32%+16 pts
- Q41:36Tari Eason makes tip shotHOU 105 – 101 OKC · HOU 70% → 86% +16HOU 70% → 86%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -3.5
- ML HOU +136 / OKC -162
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 60.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -146
- HOU +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 105.0 – 108.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1690 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −113 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Missing Ajay Mitchell −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +71 Elo | OKC 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 120.21st of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 107.91st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +12.31st of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 117.34th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 105.31st of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 101.217th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 12th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 22–41st of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 148625th of 30 |
| 10th of 301556 | Elo rating | 16901st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−113 Elo- Ajay Mitchell abdominal strain−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–28 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–27 | 25–26 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 21–29 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–7 OKC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Jan 15OKC 111 @ HOU 91Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Oct 21HOU 124 @ OKC 125Picked OKC 68%Hit
- Apr 4OKC 111 @ HOU 125Picked OKC 68%Miss
- Mar 3HOU 128 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Dec 14HOU 96 @ OKC 111Picked OKC 67%Hit
- Dec 1OKC 116 @ HOU 119Picked OKC 52%Miss
- Nov 8HOU 107 @ OKC 126Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Mar 27HOU 132 @ OKC 126Picked HOU 57%Hit