Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Kenrich WilliamsPoints25
- Aaron WigginsAssists6
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds12
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints25
- De'Aaron FoxAssists10
- Luke KornetRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–116
- Q421.1Kenrich Williams makes running layup106–116
- Q421.4Kenrich Williams defensive rebound104–116
- Q425.2Branden Carlson blocks Stephon Castle 's 2-foot pullup jump shot104–116
- Q438.0Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound104–116
- Q440.8Brooks Barnhizer misses 15-foot fade away jump shot104–116
- Q446.1Isaiah Joe offensive rebound104–116
- Q449.2Harrison Barnes blocks Chris Youngblood 's 17-foot pullup jump shot104–116
- Q41:00Kenrich Williams defensive rebound104–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:25Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 88 – 95 SA · OKC 8% → 13% +6OKC 8% → 13%+6 pts
- Q47:26Brooks Barnhizer makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 93 – 101 SA · OKC 4% → 9% +5OKC 4% → 9%+5 pts
- Q45:24Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 98 – 104 SA · OKC 5% → 12% +7OKC 5% → 12%+7 pts
- Q44:03Kenrich Williams makes tip shotOKC 100 – 104 SA · OKC 10% → 18% +8OKC 10% → 18%+8 pts
- Q43:53Stephon Castle makes 14-foot pullup jump shotOKC 100 – 106 SA · SA 83% → 90% +8SA 83% → 90%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -9.5
- ML OKC +320 / SA -410
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- SA: Elo 70.4%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -338
- OKC +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 106.0 – 115.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1696 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −185 | +33 | OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −54, Isaiah Hartenstein −26, Alex Caruso −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +151 Elo | SA 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.5 | Points scored | 116.812th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 112.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.7 | Margin | +4.77th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 114.810th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.2 | Defense rating | 110.13rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.516th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–6 | Road vs home | 17–65th of 30 |
| 27th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 1st of 301696 | Elo rating | 155311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−185 Elo- Chet Holmgren back spasms−54 Elo
- Isaiah Hartenstein corneal abrasion−26 Elo
- Alex Caruso right adductor−10 Elo
Spurs
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–26 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–26 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | — | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25 | 18–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–5 SA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Jan 13SA 98 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Dec 25SA 117 @ OKC 102Picked OKC 75%Miss
- Dec 23OKC 110 @ SA 130Picked OKC 67%Miss
- Dec 13SA 111 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 82%Miss
- Mar 2OKC 146 @ SA 132Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 19OKC 104 @ SA 110Picked OKC 79%Miss
- Oct 30SA 93 @ OKC 105Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 10SA 89 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 82%Hit