Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints20
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds7
Thunder- Isaiah JoePoints22
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists10
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–128
- Q43.6shot clock turnover92–128
- Q428.0Jett Howard makes 12-foot pullup jump shot92–128
- Q435.8Jett Howard defensive rebound90–128
- Q438.9Ousmane Dieng misses 25-foot three point jumper90–128
- Q439.9Kenrich Williams offensive rebound90–128
- Q443.0Chris Youngblood misses 25-foot three point jumper90–128
- Q453.7Noah Penda makes free throw 1 of 190–128
- Q453.7Aaron Wiggins shooting foul89–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:13Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)ORL 0 – 3 OKC · OKC 80% → 84% +4OKC 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q110:29Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)ORL 0 – 6 OKC · OKC 84% → 88% +4OKC 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q110:03Anthony Black makes running layup (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 2 – 6 OKC · ORL 12% → 15% +2ORL 12% → 15%+2 pts
- Q19:15Isaiah Hartenstein makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)ORL 2 – 8 OKC · OKC 85% → 88% +2OKC 85% → 88%+2 pts
- Q17:23Isaiah Hartenstein makes alley oop dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)ORL 8 – 15 OKC · OKC 86% → 88% +2OKC 86% → 88%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML ORL +390 / OKC -520
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8.5
- OKC 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 79.4%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -411
- ORL +411 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 105.5 – 117.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1687 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −17 | ORL: Usual rotation · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +234 Elo | OKC 79.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 78.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 80.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 120.31st of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 108.01st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +12.31st of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 105.51st of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.217th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 21–41st of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 148725th of 30 |
| 20th of 301458 | Elo rating | 16871st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–29 | 24–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 24–26 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | — |
| Overs–unders | 24–24 | 26–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 0–4 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.