Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints25
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints25
- De'Aaron FoxAssists10
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–112
- Q43.0shot clock turnover103–112
- Q427.6Noah Penda makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot103–112
- Q431.9Lindy Waters III bad pass
turnover (Noah Penda steals)101–112
- Q450.3Goga Bitadze makes 1-foot dunk101–112
- Q41:11Goga Bitadze defensive rebound99–112
- Q41:11Carter Bryant misses two point shot99–112
- Q41:29Jett Howard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)99–112
- Q41:45Harrison Ingram makes layup (Jordan McLaughlin assists)96–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:03Anthony Black makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 46 – 45 SA · ORL 34% → 42% +7ORL 34% → 42%+7 pts
- Q23:24Jalen Suggs makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 54 – 51 SA · ORL 40% → 48% +8ORL 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q22:25Julian Champagnie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)ORL 54 – 56 SA · SA 58% → 66% +8SA 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q248.6Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 59 – 56 SA · ORL 40% → 49% +9ORL 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q35:36Devin Vassell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)ORL 69 – 73 SA · SA 62% → 71% +9SA 62% → 71%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -4.5
- ML ORL +164 / SA -198
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- SA: Elo 70.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -175
- ORL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.0 – 113.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +33 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +149 Elo | SA 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 116.911th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 112.38th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 114.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 110.45th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.516th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 16–65th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 19th of 301463 | Elo rating | 154812th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–28 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23 | 18–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–1 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.