LA Clippers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints27
- Kris DunnAssists6
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds12
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints21
- Kevin DurantAssists6
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–102
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound105–102
- Q40.0Tari Eason misses 22-foot turnaround jump shot105–102
- Q42.0Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for John Collins105–102
- Q42.0Tari Eason enters the game for Clint Capela105–102
- Q42.0Rockets Full timeout105–102
- Q42.0Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 1105–102
- Q42.0Clint Capela enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate104–102
- Q42.0Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason104–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:14Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)LAC 98 – 98 HOU · HOU 28% → 55% +28HOU 28% → 55%+28 pts
- Q41:39John Collins makes 5-foot running dunk (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 102 – 98 HOU · LAC 67% → 84% +17LAC 67% → 84%+17 pts
- Q442.7Alperen Sengun makes 3-foot two point shot (Kevin Durant assists)LAC 102 – 101 HOU · HOU 11% → 36% +25HOU 11% → 36%+25 pts
- Q47.2Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2LAC 102 – 102 HOU · HOU 16% → 51% +36HOU 16% → 51%+36 pts
- Q42.0Kawhi Leonard makes 12-foot two point shotLAC 104 – 102 HOU · LAC 49% → >99% +51LAC 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML LAC +260 / HOU -325
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.8%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -275
- LAC +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 102.0 – 110.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | HOU and LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −56 | +7 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +106 Elo | HOU 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 74.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 114.920th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 109.74th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +5.26th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 115.57th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 110.35th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 18–64th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 9th of 301565 | Elo rating | 15728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–27 | 23–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 19–28 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 22–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–6 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Feb 10LAC 95 @ HOU 102Picked HOU 73%Hit
- Dec 23HOU 108 @ LAC 128Picked HOU 71%Miss
- Dec 11LAC 113 @ HOU 115Picked HOU 76%Hit
- Apr 9HOU 117 @ LAC 134Picked LAC 81%Hit
- Dec 8HOU 117 @ LAC 106Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Nov 15LAC 104 @ HOU 125Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Nov 13LAC 103 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 63%Hit
- Apr 14HOU 116 @ LAC 105Picked HOU 63%Hit