New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints26
- Payton PritchardAssists7
- Baylor ScheiermanRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–89
- Q414.0Jordan Walsh defensive rebound111–89
- Q416.3Kevin McCullar Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot111–89
- Q433.1Trey Jemison III defensive rebound111–89
- Q435.9Hugo Gonzalez misses 25-foot three point jumper111–89
- Q454.1Ron Harper Jr. defensive rebound111–89
- Q455.4Kevin McCullar Jr. misses 18-foot pullup jump shot111–89
- Q41:06Luka Garza makes free throw 2 of 2111–89
- Q41:06Luka Garza makes free throw 1 of 2111–88
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:46Derrick White makes 23-foot three pointer (Baylor Scheierman assists)NY 49 – 41 BOS · BOS 29% → 36% +7BOS 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q24:21Mohamed Diawara makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 52 – 41 BOS · NY 65% → 72% +7NY 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q310:40Josh Hart makes 24-foot three pointerNY 63 – 55 BOS · NY 59% → 68% +9NY 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q36:54Landry Shamet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 70 – 61 BOS · NY 64% → 73% +9NY 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q34:21Josh Hart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 75 – 65 BOS · NY 69% → 78% +9NY 69% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -3.5
- ML NY +130 / BOS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5.5
- BOS 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 71.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- NY +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 106.0 – 109.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1664 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +25 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +158 Elo | BOS 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 115.617th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 108.42nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +7.23rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 118.22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 110.86th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.7 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 30 |
| 26th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 147730th of 30 |
| 6th of 301586 | Elo rating | 16642nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–25 | 29–23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–20 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 19–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 6–11 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.
- Dec 2NY 117 @ BOS 123Picked NY 51%Miss
- Oct 24BOS 95 @ NY 105Picked NY 61%Hit
- May 16BOS 81 @ NY 119PlayoffsPicked NY 57%Hit
- May 14NY 102 @ BOS 127PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- May 12BOS 113 @ NY 121PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Miss
- May 10BOS 115 @ NY 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 7NY 91 @ BOS 90PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Miss
- May 5NY 108 @ BOS 105PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Miss