Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Andrew WigginsPoints26
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds7
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints29
- Derrick WhiteAssists5
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–98
- Q40.7Dru Smith enters the game for Simone Fontecchio96–98
- Q40.7Payton Pritchard enters the game for Baylor Scheierman96–98
- Q40.7Celtics Full timeout96–98
- Q40.7Celtics defensive team rebound96–98
- Q42.7Davion Mitchell misses 23-foot three point jumper96–98
- Q48.0Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.96–98
- Q48.0Heat Full timeout96–98
- Q48.0Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound96–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:58Andrew Wiggins makes 30-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 94 – 91 BOS · MIA 45% → 66% +21MIA 45% → 66%+21 pts
- Q43:32Jaylen Brown makes 12-foot two point shotMIA 94 – 93 BOS · BOS 32% → 47% +15BOS 32% → 47%+15 pts
- Q42:38Davion Mitchell makes 16-foot fade away jump shotMIA 96 – 93 BOS · MIA 55% → 72% +17MIA 55% → 72%+17 pts
- Q42:16Jaylen Brown makes 7-foot two point shotMIA 96 – 95 BOS · BOS 27% → 44% +18BOS 27% → 44%+18 pts
- Q41:31Derrick White makes 23-foot three pointer (Nikola Vucevic assists)MIA 96 – 98 BOS · BOS 41% → 75% +33BOS 41% → 75%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML MIA +185 / BOS -225
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 76.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -197
- MIA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.0 – 116.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1662 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +17 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +206 Elo | BOS 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 70.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.9 | Points scored | 115.914th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 108.62nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +7.32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 118.42nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 110.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.1 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 16–88th of 30 |
| 5th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 147430th of 30 |
| 17th of 301490 | Elo rating | 16622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–23 | 29–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–12 | 19–17 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–25 | 19–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–12 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 14.
- Jan 15BOS 119 @ MIA 114Picked BOS 57%Hit
- Dec 19MIA 116 @ BOS 129Picked BOS 72%Hit
- Apr 2MIA 124 @ BOS 103Picked BOS 79%Miss
- Mar 14BOS 103 @ MIA 91Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Feb 10BOS 103 @ MIA 85Picked BOS 73%Hit
- Dec 2MIA 89 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 77%Hit
- May 1MIA 84 @ BOS 118PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit
- Apr 29BOS 102 @ MIA 88PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit