New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jose AlvaradoPoints26
- Josh HartAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints32
- Trendon WatfordAssists4
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–89
- Q415.3Dillon Jones defensive rebound138–89
- Q418.4Trendon Watford misses 28-foot three point jumper138–89
- Q433.0Mohamed Diawara makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dillon Jones assists)138–89
- Q444.7Knicks defensive team rebound135–89
- Q447.4MarJon Beauchamp misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot135–89
- Q458.6Ariel Hukporti makes dunk (Tyler Kolek assists)135–89
- Q41:05Trendon Watford lost ball turnover (Dillon Jones steals)133–89
- Q41:15Dillon Jones makes free throw 2 of 2133–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:11Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 14 – 4 PHI · NY 69% → 75% +5NY 69% → 75%+5 pts
- Q17:50Dominick Barlow makes 23-foot running jump shot (VJ Edgecombe assists)NY 16 – 8 PHI · PHI 23% → 29% +5PHI 23% → 29%+5 pts
- Q11:55Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerNY 32 – 20 PHI · NY 74% → 79% +5NY 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q11:33Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three pointerNY 32 – 23 PHI · PHI 21% → 26% +5PHI 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q117.0Josh Hart makes 26-foot three pointerNY 36 – 23 PHI · NY 76% → 81% +5NY 76% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML NY -135 / PHI +114
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.4 pts
- NY: Elo 67.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 113.5 – 111.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1603 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | −78 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | PHI crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +128 Elo | NY 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 64.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 116.712th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 115.515th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.5 | Margin | +1.215th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 113.713th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.019th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 15–1319th of 30 |
| 27th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 5th of 301603 | Elo rating | 150315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–26 | 31–22 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–21 | 18–11 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 12–5 PHI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.
- Jan 24NY 112 @ PHI 109Picked NY 51%Hit
- Jan 3PHI 130 @ NY 119Picked NY 61%Miss
- Dec 19PHI 116 @ NY 107Picked NY 68%Miss
- Apr 1PHI 91 @ NY 105Picked NY 86%Hit
- Feb 26PHI 105 @ NY 110Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 15NY 125 @ PHI 119Picked NY 65%Hit
- Nov 12NY 111 @ PHI 99Picked NY 59%Hit
- May 2NY 118 @ PHI 115PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss