Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints30
- Andre DrummondAssists5
- Andre DrummondRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Toumani CamaraPoints30
- Deni AvdijaAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–135
- Q414.0MarJon Beauchamp makes 2-foot running dunk118–135
- Q418.1Javonte Cooke lost ball turnover (MarJon Beauchamp steals)116–135
- Q438.2Javonte Cooke defensive rebound116–135
- Q440.2Johni Broome misses free throw 2 of 2116–135
- Q440.276ers offensive team rebound116–135
- Q440.2Johni Broome misses free throw 1 of 2116–135
- Q440.2Yang Hansen shooting foul116–135
- Q444.6Yang Hansen traveling turnover116–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:18Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)PHI 61 – 56 POR · POR 35% → 43% +8POR 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q21:49Toumani Camara makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotPHI 61 – 59 POR · POR 43% → 51% +8POR 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q21:13Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Robert Williams III assists)PHI 61 – 62 POR · POR 51% → 60% +9POR 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q311:29Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)PHI 67 – 67 POR · POR 48% → 57% +9POR 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q310:51Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)PHI 67 – 70 POR · POR 56% → 65% +9POR 56% → 65%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML PHI +136 / POR -162
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- POR: Elo 62.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- POR -146
- PHI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.0 – 117.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −79 | +27 | PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −109, Dominick Barlow −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · POR: Missing Shaedon Sharpe −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +89 Elo | POR 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 115.815th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 118.023rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 113.618th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 15–1318th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15173rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301513 | Elo rating | 146020th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−79 Elo- Joel Embiid right knee injury−109 Elo
- Dominick Barlow illness−10 Elo
Trail Blazers
+27 Elo- Shaedon Sharpe left calf−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–21 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–11 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 26–26 | 28–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.