Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Olivier-Maxence ProsperPoints25
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists7
- GG JacksonRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints29
- Caleb LoveAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–122
- Q418.0Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2115–122
- Q418.0Taylor Hendricks enters the game for Walter Clayton Jr.114–122
- Q418.0Rayan Rupert enters the game for Toumani Camara114–122
- Q418.0Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Vit Krejci114–122
- Q418.0Yang Hansen enters the game for Donovan Clingan114–122
- Q418.0Javonte Cooke enters the game for Jerami Grant114–122
- Q418.0Blake Wesley enters the game for Jrue Holiday114–122
- Q418.0Javon Small makes free throw 1 of 2114–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:47Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caleb Love assists)MEM 104 – 103 POR · POR 38% → 54% +16POR 38% → 54%+16 pts
- Q46:30Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 28-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)MEM 107 – 103 POR · MEM 46% → 63% +17MEM 46% → 63%+17 pts
- Q46:19Caleb Love makes 26-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)MEM 107 – 106 POR · POR 37% → 54% +17POR 37% → 54%+17 pts
- Q43:56Javon Small makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Taylor Hendricks assists)MEM 111 – 112 POR · MEM 18% → 36% +18MEM 18% → 36%+18 pts
- Q42:49Jrue Holiday makes 3-foot two point shotMEM 111 – 114 POR · POR 64% → 79% +14POR 64% → 79%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- POR -9.5
- ML MEM +270 / POR -340
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- POR: Elo 61.5%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -286
- MEM +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 109.5 – 119.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −87 | −30 | MEM: Missing Cam Spencer −29, Cedric Coward −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −39, Robert Williams III −19, Shaedon Sharpe −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +82 Elo | POR 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 115.615th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 118.123rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −2.421st of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 309–14 | Road vs home | 14–1319th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15174th of 30 |
| 19th of 301465 | Elo rating | 145421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−87 Elo- Cam Spencer sore right ankle−29 Elo
- Cedric Coward sore right shoulder−17 Elo
Trail Blazers
−30 Elo- Deni Avdija low back strain−39 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−19 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe sore left calf−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–29 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 12–21 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 4–5 POR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Feb 6MEM 115 @ POR 135Picked POR 71%Hit
- Dec 7POR 96 @ MEM 119Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Mar 19MEM 99 @ POR 115Picked MEM 62%Miss
- Nov 25POR 98 @ MEM 123Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Nov 10MEM 134 @ POR 89Picked MEM 52%Hit
- Mar 2POR 107 @ MEM 100Picked MEM 53%Miss
- Mar 1POR 122 @ MEM 92Picked MEM 65%Miss
- Nov 5MEM 112 @ POR 100Picked POR 61%Miss