Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Cam SpencerPoints18
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists6
- Cedric CowardRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints23
- Scoot HendersonAssists9
- Donovan ClinganRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–135
- Q421.5Jahmai Mashack makes 26-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)115–135
- Q435.5Blake Wesley lost ball turnover (GG Jackson steals)112–135
- Q455.4Javon Small makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Cam Spencer assists)112–135
- Q41:05Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound109–135
- Q41:10Yang Hansen misses 26-foot three point jumper109–135
- Q41:31Cam Spencer makes free throw 2 of 2109–135
- Q41:31Javon Small enters the game for Jaylen Wells108–135
- Q41:31Cam Spencer makes free throw 1 of 2108–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:04Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)MEM 46 – 43 POR · POR 52% → 60% +8POR 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q25:48Walter Clayton Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)MEM 49 – 43 POR · MEM 40% → 48% +8MEM 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q25:22Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)MEM 49 – 46 POR · POR 52% → 60% +8POR 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q25:02Vit Krejci makes 24-foot running jump shot (Scoot Henderson assists)MEM 49 – 49 POR · POR 59% → 67% +8POR 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q39:27Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)MEM 71 – 76 POR · POR 70% → 78% +8POR 70% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- POR -8.5
- ML MEM +235 / POR -290
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -2
- POR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.3 pts
- POR: Elo 58.0%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- POR -249
- MEM +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 113.5 – 122.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | −10 | MEM: Missing Kyle Anderson −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −32 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +56 Elo | POR 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 115.318th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 118.123rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −2.922nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 111.025th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 113.719th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 13–1319th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15203rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301478 | Elo rating | 144123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−67 Elo- Kyle Anderson illness−1 Elo
Trail Blazers
−10 Elo- Deni Avdija lower back injury−32 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–28 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 12–20 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 4–4 POR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Dec 7POR 96 @ MEM 119Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Mar 19MEM 99 @ POR 115Picked MEM 62%Miss
- Nov 25POR 98 @ MEM 123Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Nov 10MEM 134 @ POR 89Picked MEM 52%Hit
- Mar 2POR 107 @ MEM 100Picked MEM 53%Miss
- Mar 1POR 122 @ MEM 92Picked MEM 65%Miss
- Nov 5MEM 112 @ POR 100Picked POR 61%Miss
- Nov 3MEM 113 @ POR 115Picked POR 60%Hit