Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Collin GillespiePoints30
- Collin GillespieAssists10
- Mark WilliamsRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints23
- Sidy CissokoAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–125
- Q41.3Toumani Camara defensive rebound130–125
- Q41.3Jordan Goodwin misses free throw 2 of 2130–125
- Q41.3Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 1 of 2130–125
- Q41.3Jrue Holiday personal take foul129–125
- Q41.3Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound129–125
- Q44.7Jerami Grant misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot129–125
- Q46.9Grayson Allen out of bounds lost ball turnover129–125
- Q48.7Sidy Cissoko makes 1-foot running dunk129–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:03Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)PHX 82 – 82 POR · PHX 45% → 55% +10PHX 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q34:30Sidy Cissoko makes 25-foot three point jumper (Robert Williams III assists)PHX 86 – 87 POR · POR 39% → 49% +10POR 39% → 49%+10 pts
- Q33:19Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 91 – 87 POR · PHX 58% → 68% +10PHX 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q349.4Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three pointerPHX 96 – 90 POR · PHX 65% → 76% +10PHX 65% → 76%+10 pts
- Q31.7Jordan Goodwin makes 28-foot three pointerPHX 101 – 94 POR · PHX 69% → 79% +10PHX 69% → 79%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML PHX -148 / POR +124
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 60.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -134
- POR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 110.5 – 108.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | −13 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −35 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +75 Elo | PHX 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.8 | Points scored | 115.118th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 117.922nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −2.822nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 110.725th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 113.418th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.4 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 13–1219th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15194th of 30 |
| 9th of 301570 | Elo rating | 144622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−13 Elo- Deni Avdija strained lower back−35 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–17 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–7 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–29 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 6–3 POR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Nov 18PHX 127 @ POR 110Picked POR 53%Miss
- Feb 3PHX 119 @ POR 121Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Feb 1PHX 108 @ POR 127Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Dec 15POR 109 @ PHX 116Picked PHX 83%Hit
- Nov 2POR 97 @ PHX 103Picked PHX 86%Hit
- Jan 14PHX 127 @ POR 116Picked PHX 67%Hit
- Jan 1POR 88 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Dec 19PHX 104 @ POR 109Picked PHX 64%Miss