Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints35
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists13
- VJ EdgecombeRebounds10
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints35
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Rui HachimuraRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–119
- Q44.8Austin Reaves defensive rebound115–119
- Q47.1Tyrese Maxey misses shot115–119
- Q412.3Rui Hachimura makes 3-foot dunk (Maxi Kleber assists)115–119
- Q427.0Tyrese Maxey makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot115–117
- Q434.576ers Full timeout113–117
- Q434.5Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2113–117
- Q434.5Lakers offensive team rebound113–116
- Q434.5Marcus Smart misses free throw 1 of 2113–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:17Joel Embiid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 77 – 69 LAL · PHI 64% → 73% +9PHI 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q31:32Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)PHI 83 – 81 LAL · LAL 34% → 45% +11LAL 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q411:21Austin Reaves makes 31-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)PHI 87 – 88 LAL · LAL 44% → 57% +13LAL 44% → 57%+13 pts
- Q410:46Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 87 – 91 LAL · LAL 57% → 69% +12LAL 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q427.0Tyrese Maxey makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotPHI 115 – 117 LAL · PHI 2% → 14% +12PHI 2% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -2.5
- ML PHI +114 / LAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1.5
- LAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 56.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 117.0 – 119.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +40 | PHI: Missing Paul George −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +45 Elo | LAL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 116.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 116.218th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 115.95th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 115.824th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 12–813th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 148924th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 151914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+42 Elo- Paul George suspended by league−12 Elo
Lakers
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–20 | 27–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–11 | 19–10 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–24 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.