Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- VJ EdgecombePoints25
- VJ EdgecombeAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds12
Warriors- Pat SpencerPoints13
- De'Anthony MeltonAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–94
- Q45.9shot clock turnover113–94
- Q431.5Pat Spencer makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Will Richard assists)113–94
- Q435.4Will Richard defensive rebound113–91
- Q437.1Jabari Walker misses driving layup113–91
- Q458.6Malevy Leons out of bounds bad pass turnover113–91
- Q41:02Trendon Watford lost ball turnover (Buddy Hield steals)113–91
- Q41:19Jabari Walker defensive rebound113–91
- Q41:23Buddy Hield misses 26-foot three point jumper113–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:11Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)PHI 55 – 50 GS · GS 36% → 44% +8GS 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q37:32Gui Santos makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)PHI 67 – 58 GS · GS 21% → 29% +8GS 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q36:24Draymond Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)PHI 68 – 61 GS · GS 25% → 34% +9GS 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q35:17Pat Spencer makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)PHI 70 – 64 GS · GS 27% → 36% +9GS 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q34:58VJ Edgecombe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 73 – 64 GS · PHI 64% → 73% +9PHI 64% → 73%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -4.5
- ML PHI +145 / GS -175
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5.5
- GS 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.3 pts
- GS: Elo 71.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- GS -156
- PHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 109.0 – 113.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −72 | −76 | PHI: Missing Paul George −34 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +157 Elo | GS 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 69.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 116.713th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 114.010th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +2.710th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 113.514th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 110.99th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 17–87th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149816th of 30 |
| 17th of 301482 | Elo rating | 156710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−72 Elo- Paul George suspended by league−34 Elo
Warriors
−76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–20 | 24–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–11 | 18–19 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–23 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.